CMC Markets专栏:美铝业公司股价走势看法

美国铝业公司是继力拓集团与俄罗斯铝业集团之后世界第三大的铝材生产商，始建于1888年，业务遍及44个国家。昨日，美铝公司2016年第一季度财报显示第一季度营业额度达49.5亿美元，股票每股收益达7美分/股，虽然好于一些专家的预期2美分，但自去年28美分有很大下滑。财告公布后，美铝股票价格下滑5%，最后以跌2.67%收盘至9.48美元。

由于美联储14年以来的逐步货币紧缩引发全球大宗商品供给过剩之情况愈演愈烈，国际大宗商品价格包括能源价格与金属原材料价格一路风跌。美铝公司股票由2014年最高17.7美元一路下行，跌幅度达46.5%。从美铝公司可以雀见一斑，全球许多相似大型企业都面临此种情况。那么，以美铝公司为一例，这些公司企业的股票是否仍然是能够长期投资优质股票？个人的答案是肯定的。

美铝公司股票有可能被低估

根据股神巴菲特的投资理论来看，投资股票是对公司的真实市值的投资，巴菲特也曾经说过“不能承受50%的人就不应该投资”。对于每一个公司的真正市值，需要经济学家们去使用各种公式来计算，但对于美铝公司股票的大幅下滑我们也可以这句名言做安慰。去年Elloitt Associates表示美铝股票市值被很大低估，当时股价位9.11美元。无论你信不信巴菲特，但投资的道理都是一样的，那就是购入被低估的资产。个人观点来看美铝股价可能在12-13美元才会是较为合理的价格空间，这也是历史价格中100日均线附近的区间。

美铝正在向新市场需求转型，盛衰在此一绝

从另一个角度来看，判断一个公司的前景要看其是否能够持续创造市场需求来引导消费，说白了根治经济危机或者攻击过剩的良方，是创造新领域的需求。那么这种新需求的转型就是盛与衰的一个转折点。

去年9月份，美铝集团透露消息，至今年年底，其将公司分支出两个上市公司， 一个公司继续传统的铝原料制造业，另一个公司（Arconic）即将转型高科技设备原料供给，如汽车与飞机部件。美铝公司预期2016年飞机零部件销售能有增加6%-8%，较去年第四季度6-8%预期有所下滑。同时，汽车零部件方面预期将上涨1-4%。对于美铝公司此番行动来讲，一方面是在新的高科技领域寻找市场机会，另一方面的传统原料制造业可以会是一过度为目的而最终逐步退出。实际上这个决定是与中国的铝业竞争分不开的，中国铝产业成本低廉使得美铝传统行业受到巨大冲击。那么美铝可能会完全转型为一个以高科技材料供应为主的大型公司。

另外，美铝曾其在2016年第一季度裁掉600个工作岗位，本年度还将裁员400个工作岗位。但这应该是公司转型中需要做出一些调整的正常行动。

美铝公司可能自此盛衰在此一绝， 前景是美好的，但任重路远！

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。