CMC Market 专栏：纽币与澳币潜在的技术形态反弹

自从去年新西兰经理约翰.基暗示纽币对美元合理的汇率应该为0.65之后，投资者似乎便对0.65的价位形成了心理的买入目标。而从技术图形上看，纽币确实在近日逐渐走出一波近似抄底反弹的形态。天图上看，直到7月28日突破上行前，纽币自四月份一直在下行通道中运行。另外可以看到，纽币经历了三轮对于底部0.65附近支持位置测试，分别是7月17日，8月5日与8月12日。此位置的支持已经被市场多次确认，纽币对美元潜在可能会出现一波强有力的上涨。 上方的第一阻力位置仍然是连续多日并未被突破的0.6640附近，结合纽币天图技术指标来看，MACD与Stoch均出现明显的牛背离多头信号，我们说这一位置能够被突破的可能性很大。多头的下一个获利的潜在目标将在0.6783附近，这是自4月份高点向下拉伸黄金分割线反弹回荡线23.6%附近的位置。

今日澳联储公布的8月4日会议内容与市场预期并无新意，表示澳币的低汇率是支持经济的关键，这并不足以使得澳币继续大幅下行。技术图形上看，澳币天图与纽币异曲同工，同样是在下降楔形中整理下行多日后出现突破反转的迹象，一般教科书层面的定义上来讲，下降楔形的后市形态为向上突破。澳币/美元在近日底部0.7230附近的支持位置经历过两次测试，如今在楔形上轨附近再次受到支持有望整理上行。首要的潜在阻力位置可能将在黄金分割线反弹回荡线23.6%附近的位置0.7450附近。如果顺利突破此位置，澳币有望向上进一步测试阻力位置将有可能在黄金分割线38.2%回荡线0.7580附近。

Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.