CMC Markets专栏：纽币与澳币会跌倒何时？

纽币与澳币像两个同命相怜的兄弟，自5月份以来一路下行，连续数月毫无转机之际，基本面上主要受美国加息，中国经济放缓，大宗商品价格下行所致。澳联储与新西兰央行纷纷示意有继续下调利率的预期，尤其是新西兰央行在本周四的会议上极有可能将官方利率再下调25个百分点。那么纽币与澳币的下跌态势，何时能休？从技术形态上看来，纽币短期内仍然有下跌的空间，澳币正运行在支持位置附近。则澳币短期内很有可能相对纽币较强。
 
纽币/美元
 
纽币对美元的月线图上看，很明显能够看出下方支持位持有可能在黄金分割延展线的100%附近0.6090。距离现在的价格还有近200点的空间。日内反弹空间有可能在0.6300-0.6330的区间。

澳币/美元
 
澳币形态上比纽币稍有强势，这主要是由于澳币短期内的下跌空间已经有限，目前在支持位置运行。日线图中可以看到，澳币似乎已经跌破下降趋势线，如今反弹试探趋势线底部位置，暗示此突破可能是假突破。如果日内能够成功会调至趋势线内，则此货币对很可能继续其下降通道中运行。其短期的潜在反弹价位有可能在黄金分割线23.6%回荡线0.7200附近。

从月线图上看，澳币/美元在黄金分割延展线61.8%回荡线附近受到支持，如果此位置能够支持反弹，则上方潜在目标仍旧为0.7200附近（黄金分割延展线50.0%）。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。