CMC Markets专栏:呼吁投资者提高风险警觉

昨日中国沪指再度下滑2.42%, 失守3000整数关口. 美国股市亦在一日反弹后,再次全线跌落, 截至北京时间凌晨4点钟,美国标普指数500下跌2.25%, 在此跌破1900整数关口; 道琼斯指数下跌1.91%至16200点. 原油价格继续下滑，伦敦商品交易所英国布伦特原油期货价格自2004年以来首次跌破30美元；黄金、欧元、日元出现反弹，商品货币澳币、纽币再度下滑。市场似乎再次向“避险”转向。也许正像，摩根大通近日来向投资者所建议的-要在股市反弹的时刻做空。

多方表示提高风险警觉

摩根大通一位股票分析师在报告中表示目前股市孕育着危机的风险， 并不像7年以前一样可以寻机逢低做涨。他主张投资者应该寻机在股市反弹之时，寻机做空。 同时，他也表示对于企业将公布的第四季度财务报告表示担忧。

著名投资人乔治.索罗斯也表示目前的经济形势有如 08金融危机， 他曾经在2011年9月的华盛顿会议上说道，希腊所引发的欧洲债务问题“比2008危机更为严重”。乔治.索罗斯的对冲资金公司自1969年至2011年平均每年盈利20%， 其净资产达273亿美元。 他还说道，中国目前面临向新的增长模式过渡的难题， 人民币的贬值引发对于全球经济的连锁反应。

新兴市场仍面临金融风险

伴随人民币连续4日大幅升值，新兴市场国家的货币出现3个月以来最大涨幅，但摩根士丹利与德国商业银行均表示这将可能是短期反弹，警示投资者要减持。据彭博社数据统计，昨日中国12月份贸易数据公布后， 由于贸易额盈余扩大，新兴市场20国货币总体上涨0.4%。但其报告称，这可能部分原因在于近日在岸人民币与离岸人民币的套利交易而致。

新兴市场货币指数走势

资料来源：彭博社

新兴市场的资金流动性吃紧，将有可能导致其货币的再度贬值。根据KKR&Co.预测，大宗商品价格与于新兴市场货币的弱势可能会持续到今年年底。MSCI新兴市场基准股指自2014高点下跌61.57%。KRR全球宏观经济与资产配置团队的主管在报告中写道：“不幸的是，向前看，2016年可能是较为混乱的一年”。

MSCI新兴市场基准股指走势

资料来源：彭博社

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。